[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 27W/28W FROM
9N-17N MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS N OF ANY DEEP
MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W S OF 20N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 30 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA BETWEEN PLUMBS
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-63W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 64W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 60W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 72W/73W S
OF 18N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 81W/82W S OF  17N
TO OVER PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURFACE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N W
OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N26W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N29W AND CONTINUES ALONG
6N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-
26W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 40W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW ATLC COVERS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S GULF NEAR 22N89W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF N
OF 27N E OF 92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA ALONG 12N72W
TO 13N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S
OVER THE ISLANDS TO 17N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND E CUBA.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE
ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E CUBA AND WILL DIG FURTHER
S OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THU AND FRI. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 31N79W COVERING
THE W ATLC W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N47W TO A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW
NEAR 23N65W THEN CONTINUING TO E CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE STRONGER
UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 43W-48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 26N64W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N48W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net