[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 26W/27W FROM
7N-17N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 20N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 30 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE.
HOWEVER THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA
BETWEEN PLUMBS OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 16N TO OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 59W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W S OF
18N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N78W ACROSS
PANAMA NEAR 8N81W MOVING W-SW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURFACE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N26W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG
6N39W 7N50W TO 11N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 39W-
46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW ATLC COVERS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S GULF NEAR 22N88W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 25N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF N
OF 27N E OF 92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA ALONG 12N72W
TO 14N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S
OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E CUBA. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 16N E OF 67W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI
TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE
ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA AND WILL DIG FURTHER S
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THU AND FRI. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 31N79W COVERING
THE W ATLC W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N48W TO A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW
NEAR 23N64W THEN CONTINUING TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THE STRONGER
UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 41W-48W AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N63W ALONG
23N67W TO 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLC BASIN
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
27N51W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 27N64W TO ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S
TONIGHT THEN RETREAT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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