[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 142044
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015
500 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

Recent visible satellite imagery indicates Claudette's circulation
has become shallow and disorganized, with the low-level circulation
completely decoupled from the convection to the east-northeast.  An
uncontaminated ASCAT pass at 1430 UTC observed winds of 42 kt in the
southeast quadrant, which indicates that Claudette has maintained
its intensity longer than expected.  Assuming some weakening has
occurred since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity estimate is set
at 40 kt.  Further weakening should occur over the next 12 hours as
the system moves over progressively colder SSTs and transitions to
an extratropical cyclone.  Global models show the system opening up
into a trough in 24 hours and the official forecast calls for
dissipation by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 050/18 kt.  Claudette is forecast to
continue toward the north-northeast while it rotates around a large
deep-layer cyclone over eastern Canada.  The official track
forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 42.5N  59.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 44.8N  57.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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