[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 141451
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

Claudette's cloud pattern is rapidly becoming less organized. Deep
convection continues to burst northeast of the low-level center,
with the latter becoming increasingly exposed and diffuse this
morning. The cyclone's current structure is symptomatic of deep
layer of southwesterly shear of over 30 kt, as diagnosed by SHIPS
model analyses. Dvorak classifications were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35
kt from SAB and TAFB at 1200 UTC, respectively. The initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt, at the higher end of these estimates
due to the storm's increasing forward speed. Claudette has already
passed the northern wall of the Gulf Stream and will be moving
over sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C soon.  Cooler waters, a
much more stable and drier atmosphere, and continued strong
southwesterly shear should contribute to Claudette's weakening.
Global models suggest that extratropical transition should occur in
about 24 hours, with the system opening up into a trough shortly
after that.  The official intensity forecast is in excellent
agreement with the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 050/18.  Prior to dissipation
tomorrow, Claudette's track should turn north-northeastward with
some additional acceleration while it rotates around large
deep-layer cyclone over eastern Canada.  The latest track forecast
has changed little from the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 41.4N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 43.6N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 46.7N  56.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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