[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 22W...MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. ACCORDING TO METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES
BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
LACK OF CONVECTION N OF 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS ARE FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 27W WHERE SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 76W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT N OF 13N AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE S OF 13N. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE EPAC
MONSOON TROUGH REGION SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF
14N AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 87W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT N OF 13N THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO
08N25W TO 08N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N38W TO 06N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE WESTERN GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO WHILE E OF 88W THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NE
TENNESSEE COVER THE NE BASIN. S OF 26N...AN ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE SE GULF EXTENDING S-SE INTO THE WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN
90W AND 95W. A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE SE GULF
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 27N E OF 84W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB CENTER NEAR 29N86W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E
TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH
CENTER IN THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE
GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW BASIN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE WITH AXIS NEAR 76W AND
ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVES. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE
BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT.
NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF 17N W OF 86W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS OF 20
KT OR LESS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N73W ALONG
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
24N TO 27N W OF 73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N68W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W. HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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