[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N21W TO 18N20W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 15W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N
BETWEEN 16W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 18N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N67W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS STRETCHING FROM OVER TRINIDAD TO THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N75W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 19N84W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-19N
BETWEEN 78W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
09N20W TO 09N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N38W TO 07N58W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N96W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO
EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 82W-87W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY W OF A
LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 20N76W. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W IS ALSO
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS
THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 16N
BETWEEN 68W-82W THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND NEAR 24N73W.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N73W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 69W-75W. FARTHER NE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 34N55W THAT
SUPPORTS A WEAK 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N57W AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM THE LOW SE TO 29N51W
THEN NE TO 33N44W MEETING UP WITH A CENTRAL NORTH ATLC COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE MARGINAL AREA OF
LIFT ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTAL FORCING IS GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 53W-63W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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