[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN EASTERLY
700 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N21W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO TRUE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W SHIFTS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE 66W...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS
EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE PRIME IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN
REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...WITH EVEN NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITHIN NW FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N70W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE
CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SLOW TO MOVE...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N81W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 35N74W TO 31N78W TO 27N80W.
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 64W-71W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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