[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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