[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N27W TO 17N26W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING AND MAXIMUM 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY BETWEEN 25W-29W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N49W TO 15N47W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 44W-
50W ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
NEAR 17N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 44W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N76W TO 18N72W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-80W
WITH MUCH OF THE 850 RELATIVE VORTICITY ENERGY NOTED S OF 13N.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
13N20W TO 08N30W TO 09N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 09N45W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION 10N-15N BETWEEN 12W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 33W-
39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN FAIRLY EXPANSIVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PRIMARILY NE FLOW ALOFT SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE BASIN FOCUSED AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-94W. THIS ACTIVITY LIES IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W W-SW TO
29N90W TO 26N95W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ALONG THE MEXICO COAST WITHIN FOCUSED WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N94W TO 24N97W.
OUTSIDE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 25N/26N FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N88W TO AN INLAND 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 22N100W. MOSTLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N75W INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 61W-69W. TO THE WEST...CONDITIONS ARE MORE STABLE AS NW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...EVEN
AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W BEGINS TO ENTER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY
IMPACT REMAINS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE TO STRONGER RIDGING
BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N75W IS
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A BASE REACHING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
NEAR 32N79W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N75W SW ALONG THE COAST TO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N78W TO 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF
30N BETWEEN 72W-79W...AND WITHIN MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE N
OF 27N BETWEEN 66W-76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N57W SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...A
VERY SHALLOW FRONT EXTENDS FROM 34N27W TO 28N34W TO 29N40W TO
32N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SW AND WEAKEN. ALSO...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N24W TO 30N28W AND IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N22W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N-
32N BETWEEN 16W-24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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