[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W...FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W
AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM HISPANIOLA
ALONG 20N SOUTHWARD LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA AND
LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO
20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA FROM 17N
TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N27W 09N37W AND 07N41W.
THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN LAND AND 17W...FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
26W AND 30W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SECOND AND
COMPARATIVELY SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW COVERING THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 84W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE U.S.A. DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN COASTAL MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N
BETWEEN THE COAST AND 99W.

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO LAND BETWEEN 84W THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND 92W OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COAST/THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 85W WESTWARD...AROUND THE 20N90W YUCATAN PENINSULA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
CURVES AWAY FROM THE 20N90W CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...TOWARD THE BASE
OF A 73W/74W TROUGH. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA NEAR
09N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO
10N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.

OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 19N74W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP
EVENTUALLY ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECT VARIATIONS IN THE WIND DIRECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO
30N76W. IT IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND AT
THIS MOMENT. THE REST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
27N73W...TO 22N77W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N22W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N23W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
24N23W TO 25N33W AND 26N38W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N48W...TO
20N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N48W
CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N
BETWEEN 38W AND 62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THE 23N47W CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N28W
24N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N
TO 30N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N
BETWEEN 41W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
28N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
COAST/THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net