[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL 1800 UTC THEN WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 29W/30W FROM
9N-15N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG 700 MB TROUGH...THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THE
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS
BETWEEN PLUMBS OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N64W THROUGH THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 12N62W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N58W TO 23N64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 21N92W ACROSS
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W MOVING W-NW 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 14N20W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 12N28W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N31W THEN TO A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 12N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE MONSOON TROF TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA BETWEEN 14N-16N...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-39W AND
FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 41W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE W TEXAS/MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
FROM NE TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 LOW
CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N88W 28N93W
TO 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-
29N E OF 88W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY CARRYING
THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OUT OF THE AREA BY
MON NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF REGION
ALONG 26N THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING
ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E/CENTRAL GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
17N65W AND A SECOND UPPER LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE AREA OF DIFFLUNCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 78W-86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AGAIN TONIGHT. E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS HAITI WITH SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
WHICH IS LIMITING ANY DEEP SHOWERS. HOWEVER WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND MON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N76W AND A
SECOND UPPER LOW S OF PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N72W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N36W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N54W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA
ON SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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