[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGE FROM 9 TO 12
FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
29W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. ITS AXIS IS
NEAR 62W AND MOVES W AT 20 KT WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE BASIN
GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N65W AND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN
60W AND 65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR
89W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER
HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N TO 18N W OF 83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
14N17W TO 12N30W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 09N53W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N
TO 18N E OF 22W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE
BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE
BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 25N
TO 29N E OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO BELIZE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON HONDURAS
COASTAL WATERS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. DRY AIR
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN AS INDICATED BY SSMI
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTING NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE
FAR E BASIN AND ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W
AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND
69W AND FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
NEAR 30N56W. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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