[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/0300 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 38.7N
48.2W OR ABOUT 896 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING E-NE AT 26 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 44W-50W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N15W TO 10N17W. METEOSAT RGB AND SAL IMAGERY
SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH REMAINS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. MAINLY THICK
HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 6N-14N EAST OF
29W. THE GLD LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW SCATTERED LIGHTING
STROKES FROM 11N-14N EAST OF 20W INDICATING ALSO SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 10N42W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE
GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW DUST ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE
REGION WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE NOTED
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 36W-43W. THE REST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 25N57W TO 10N60W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW
LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS
HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
11N27W TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
10N44W AND CONTINUES TO 9N60W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW...SW
AND SE GULF...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WED THROUGH THU MORNING...ENHANCING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR SUPPRESS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS ANCHORED NEAR 28N91W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF
ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NW BASIN AND A
RIDGE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 73W-82W AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO ON
THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU MORNING...ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI BEING
SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION AS WELL
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND INCREASE BY FRIDAY
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 68W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS OF NORTHERN CUBA.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE
WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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