[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 172328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 17/2100 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 37.8N
51.2W OR ABOUT 743 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 23 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON
THURSDAY. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE INTENSITY ON
THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-41N BETWEEN
48W-53W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N39W TO 10N40W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT 20
KT. THE WAVE IS RETAINING SOME MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-
R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS
INDICATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 25N56W TO 18N60W TO 10N60W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 56W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
11N24W TO 12N30W TO 10N40W TO 10N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N45W TO 11N53W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 13W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-46W...AND FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 28N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W
CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE N GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DIP OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR
18N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 75W-
86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU DUE TO AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE
ATLANTIC FROM WEST AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1024 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 66W-70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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