[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA THIS MORNING MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY BE ANALYZED ON THE 07/1200 UTC AS A TROPICAL WAVE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY STOUT PRESENTATION OF
CYCLONIC TURNING STRONGEST IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LEVELS WITHIN
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BELOW 850 MB...IT APPEARS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF CYCLONIC MOTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...ONE NEAR
10N15W AND ANOTHER NEAR 17N18W. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N63W 15N66W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEARBY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W
TO EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS...THROUGH NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
NICARAGUA...TO COSTA RICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM 22N94W...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 22N SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 93W AND THE
MEXICO COAST.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA
NEAR 13N17W...TO 13N25W...AND TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 16N34W...ALONG THE 33W/34W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 7N37W TO 5N42W AND 6N50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 54W...
AND ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. NUMEROUS STRONG NEAR
THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W
AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N95W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND MEXICO FROM 103W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT. A
1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 29N86W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 86W
EASTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KMDJ AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITY AT ALICE TEXAS IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS...IN PORT LAVACA AND
PALACIOS...AND IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN LOUISIANA...AT
NEW IBERIA...PATTERSON...HAMMOND. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED AT THE NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...IN
LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED AT GULF SHORES ALABAMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...
TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 10N87W INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.65 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.07 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N73W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER SANTIAGO.  FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 25N73W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY ALONG THE LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND JAMAICA
TO 15N79W. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AFTER AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT STARTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MOVES
WESTWARD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 27N
BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO A
31N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 28N49W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N58W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 31N43W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N43W
TO 28N50W TO 26N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 41W AND
67W. LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL...IN AN AREA OF
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING EARLIER
PRECIPITATION...FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE SIX-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS A 1011
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N35W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 180
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net