[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N62W 14N65W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEARBY.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE...
MOSTLY FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W
TO 17N82W TO 10N83W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 75W WESTWARD.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM 22N91W...ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR 12N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 97W/98W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 12N22W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N32W...ALONG THE 32W/33W TROPICAL
WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 10N35W AND 8N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N37W TO
7N43W AND 10N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
THE GUINEA-BISSAU COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE AFRICA COAST
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO
11N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N95W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND MEXICO FROM 103W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT. A
1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN GEORGIA 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 29N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 86W EASTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ICAO STATION
KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PERRY FLORIDA.
RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.65 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.07 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N73W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N69W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...RAINSHOWERS WERE NEAR BARAHONA SIX HOURS AGO.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER SANTO DOMINGO...
PUNTA CANA...AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 25N73W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY ALONG THE LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND JAMAICA
TO 15N79W. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AFTER AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT STARTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MOVES
WESTWARD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO A
31N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 28N49W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N58W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
ALONG 31N45W TO 28N50W TO 26N55W. A REMNANT 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 42W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AN AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
WEAKENING EARLIER PRECIPITATION...FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 52W
AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND
74W. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE SIX-HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15.5N/34.5W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
9 FEET WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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