[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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