[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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