[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
45.4W OR ABOUT 770 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-48W. SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. A SHIP REPORTED 35
KT WINDS AT 0600 UTC NEAR 12N74W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL 23/1200
UTC. SEE THE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N37W TO 11N37W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N80W TO 10N80W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT TOGETHER WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N91W TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AT 8N93W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N20W TO 6N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 6N31W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM
11N48W TO 9N52W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
20W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR
31N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-94W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A GALE
IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E GUATEMALA AND W HONDURAS
FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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