[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
45.1W OR ABOUT 850 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 45W-47W. SEE THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 11N36W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE DEPICTED WELL ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE EXTENDS
FROM 19N47W TO 13N47W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT
BULLETIN. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N77W TO 10N77W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
8N23W TO 11N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 11N34W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM
10N47W TO 10N55W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
19W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE
HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
91W-93W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W-
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EL SALVADOR
AND W HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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