[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N38W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N38W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N66W TO 9N68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N82W TO 10N83W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N24W TO 11N38W TO 9N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF
90W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE E GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO CUBA AT
22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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