[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N22W TO 10N26W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING CLOSELY ENGULFED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 23W-
30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N36W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W AND
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N63W TO 9N65W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM W OF ITS AXIS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 14N W OF 82W COINCIDING WITH A BULGE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE N OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS CUBA BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N26W TO 10N34W. IT THEN RESUMES FROM 10N38W TO 6N44W TO 4N52W.
CONVECTION NOTED IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE
ABOVE FOR DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN ALABAMA FROM WHICH
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N85W TO 30N89W 29N93W TO
INLAND TEXAS NEAR 29N97W. THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS COVERS THE GULF...THUS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N AND EASTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 95W...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND START DISSIPATING
BY WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 14N W OF 81W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. TWO ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER S OF THE
ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HAITI.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND. OTHERWISE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...OCCASIONALLY WITH STRONGER
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE
MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...
TWO ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND
ANOTHER S OF THE ISLAND ARE GENERATING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT TO SUPPORT  HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN BY TUE MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-80W OR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N60W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 36NN49W TO 30N56W TO 26N60W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N36W WHICH ALONG
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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