[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EXTENDS FROM 17N21W TO
08N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 05N-17N. THE WAVE HAS A DRY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 20W-
30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 09N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N
OF 12N HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N81W TO
10N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA S OF 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 80W-
86W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND E PACIFIC FROM
20N90W TO 09N92W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 09N19W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 09N25W TO 06N40W TO 07N50W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR
06N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 85W-92W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF E OF E
TEXAS...OVER FLORIDA...AND OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA
...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
METIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT
20N82W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CUBA. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A LESSER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
37N51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
CENTER FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 55W-62W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WEATHER
IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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