[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 21W/22W FROM 09N TO
17N IS ENGULFED BY A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THE WAVE IS MOVING W
ABOUT 15 KT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WHICH IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N45W TO 09N45W IS MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N75W TO 10N76W AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 20
KT. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE E
PACIFIC. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N88W TO 09N90W AND IS MOVING W
AT ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 14N TO 16N AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ABOUT 180 NM.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 08N20W TO 07N35W TO 06N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 21W/22W...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 06N33.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF. A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA W COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE LOCATED OVER THE
N GULF N OF 27N E OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT.
WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
STRONG TSTMS ARE LOCATED S OF 12N W OF 81W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...
ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE
ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W INTO NE FLORIDA. MOVING
DOWNSTREAM A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR
28N57W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
30N57W TO 23N62W. AN OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 37N31W WITH RESULTING WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W.
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 48W AND 65W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 28N E OF 42W INTO AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net