[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N34W TO 7N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TO THE
NORTH THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N72W TO 9N75W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N84W TO 9N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
77W RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER WATER AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
7N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N15W TO 9N26W TO 8N35W. IT THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N37W TO 6N47W TO
4N51W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FROM 7N-11N E OF
16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER COLORADO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL WATERS TO SUPPORT A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. A MODERATE
MOIST AIRMASS HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER AND EASTERN GULF
FROM THE SW N ATLC. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST.
MOISTURE AT THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALONG WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS N OF THIS REGION OF CONVECTION AND
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 110 NM
OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 92W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA WHERE ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N
BETWEEN 77W-85W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 74W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED IN PART BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE
OUT OF THE BASIN BY MON MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED TO THE W-NW OF THE
ISLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND IS PLACING HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. AS
THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SLOWLY BY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER COLORADO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E-SE ACROSS FLORIDA
AND PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC. THIS ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN ALOFT
IS FAVORING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH ALONG MOIST AIR ON THE
REGION SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 79W AS
WELL AS S OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LOW
SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
41N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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