[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N34W TO 17N33W MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 19N69W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
JET ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND
COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 65W-73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 19N71W TO 12N61W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W TO 18N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N16W TO 07N18W TO 10N31W TO 07N38W TO 08N47W TO 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ON
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND RELATIVELY COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA. AN INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W
TO 25N93W. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE LIES
ALONG 30N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W. GIVEN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFTING DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 24N83W TO 30N85W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W
THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DRY AIR REMAINS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 73W-
88W...WITH MORE MOISTURE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND
WITHIN A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N85W NW INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND
90W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS E OF 73W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W SE TO TOBAGO NEAR 11N61W.
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA THIS EVENING DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA S OF 19N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED TO THE W-NW OF
THE ISLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA AND IS PLACING HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SLOWLY BY MONDAY

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INLAND TO NORTHERN GEORGIA.
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 29N76W THAT
SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 30N...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
24N79W TO 28N77W AND PRIMARILY W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THIS AREA
BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND BERMUDA TO CUBA
LINE. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N50W. THE ONLY INTERESTING FEATURE
NOTED IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N58W THAT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-
29N BETWEEN 54W-64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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