[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N33W TO 19N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EASILY TRACKED IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH
DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS AS WELL AS THE 2300Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH.  A STRONG SAHARAN
AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE...WHICH
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N63W TO 22N66W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY ON BOTH THE SHORT-WAVE
GOES-E SATELLITE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  THE
TROPICAL WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL 700
MB TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPACTS
OVERALL STABILITY WITH THE WAVE AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N86W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 21N86W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
APPARENT IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS...BUT IS
OTHERWISE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS LITTLE SURFACE SIGNATURE IS
PRESENT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA IN POSSIBLE ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N24W TO 08N35W TO 04N51W IN BRAZIL. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 15W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TWO SURFACE HIGHS ARE PRESENT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING...1019
MB NEAR 24N95W AND 1020 MB NEAR 28N90W...AND WITH GENTLE BREEZE
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PREVAILING.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WAS EARLIER PROMOTING SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THOUGH THIS HAS ENDED
LEAVING BEHIND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXPERIENCED
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF COLLIDING SEA BREEZES AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER.  GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS...CONTINUED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINLY IN AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND CONVERGING SEA BREEZES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROMOTING FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE ENE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  DEEP CONVECTION
FLARED EARLIER OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
LATTER ENHANCED BY THE WESTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE DESCRIBED
ABOVE.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OR GREATER ANTILLES.  THE
EASTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
CUBA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE DRIER.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SMALL THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PORT-AU-PRINCE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT
EXTENSIVE.  AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION
CHANCES OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N40W
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO MOROCCO.  THE RESULTING NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF
GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZE.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO 32N74W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF 76W N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT AND SHOULD PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  SURFACE TROUGH ARE
LOCATED FROM 27N47W TO 32N48W AND FROM 22N33W TO 30N34W...BUT
NEITHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  A
LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING FROM 28W TO 58W...AS SEEN
BOTH IN THE EARLIER GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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