[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N32W TO 17N29W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY
TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN
OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N65W TO 21N65W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY ON VISIBLE GOES-E
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL
MODEL 700 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPACTS
OVERALL STABILITY WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 63W-68W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N83W TO 22N84W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N89W. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY STABILITY OF THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
THE EAST PACIFIC UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWDAT/AXPZ20 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N21W TO 08N32W TO 04N42W TO 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 07W-22W...
AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 24W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
23N99W THAT IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING. WHILE NO
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW GULF...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 91W-97W. TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NEAR
33N88W THAT IS PROVIDING MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED N OF 25N BETWEEN
87W-98W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS S OF 30N E
OF 99W. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SW TO COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR A 1022
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N92W THEN TO ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. FINALLY...MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE GULF
AND FLORIDA SUPPORTING A WEAK 1019 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ALONG 30N
TO 86W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HOWEVER IS OCCURRING ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERED E OF 80W NEAR 20N72W.
THE LOW EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N77W. RESULTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN GENERALLY FAIR
SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS...25 TO 30 KT S
OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W AS DEPICTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES. THE
PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 65W AND THE OTHER
ALONG 84W ARE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 19N AND W OF 84W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER A
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST ALONG 65W IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
ISLAND WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE ISLAND ON
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR
30N81W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS
PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORT OF A 1019
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N80W THEN EASTWARD ALONG
32N TO 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N
BETWEEN 75W-83W...AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W-75W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 30N63W. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. FARTHER EAST...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
W-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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