[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

15Z MAP IS TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
REMNANT LOW ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 45.0N 65.5W AT 1500 UTC,
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT...
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML
...IN ALL LOWER CASE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N26W TO 7N31W AND IS MOVING W AT 15
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE W AND NORTH OF THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT
IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N60W TO 12N64W IS MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS EASY TO IDENTIFY ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND EXHIBITS A CLASSIC WAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE WAVE REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING
PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 79W FROM 11N-21N AND IS MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DUE TO THE RELATIVE
STABILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS SURROUNDING
THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
9N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
9N25W TO 8N29W RESUMES FROM 8N31W TO 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W
AND 22W AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF HAS ITS AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS EXTENDS
FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 28N84W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND  TSTMS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CUTS ACROSS NW FLORIDA FROM 32N81W TO 29N86W

 CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO PANAMA. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 17N E OF 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
ISLAND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 29N60W TO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N71W TO HAITI. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N80W TO 29N86W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM
30N81W TO 28N84W. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N53W AND COVERS THE
AREA ROUGHLY FROM BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 28N32W TO 10N42W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net