[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
REMNANT LOW ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 44.5N 66.3W AT 05/1200 UTC,
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB.ED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N25W TO 08N28W AND IS MOVING W AT
15 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9
IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO
RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N58W TO 15N59W TO 09N58W AND IS
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EASY TO IDENTIFY ON THE LATEST
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXHIBITS A CLASSIC WAVE PATTERN.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE WAVE
REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 78W FROM 11N TO 22N AND IS MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N76W. THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DUE TO THE RELATIVE STABILITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 96W FROM 11N TO 23N AND IS MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE WAVE AXIS IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 23N W OF
92W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N25W TO 07N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N38W TO 04N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N16.5W TO 04N14W AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS ITS AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO 27N97W TO
18N99W. RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE GULF ROUGHLY S OF 27N E OF 95W.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO 26N86W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS LOCATED NEAR TAMPA. A
STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF 86.5W. A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE RIDGING NOTED ALOFT IN THE GULF SECTION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W AND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N76W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CIRCULATION SOUTHWARD TO 11N78W. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
COVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA E OF 65W AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING.
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N76W WILL KEEP THE
ISLAND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N65W TO 20N75W. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 32N54W TO 25N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOCATED MAINLY WITHIN THREE DEGREES W OF THE TROUGH. A WELL-
DEFINED AND LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
POSITIONED NEAR 18N56W AND COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO
27N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N32W AND IS ABOUT 12 TO
15 DEGREES IN DIAMETER. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW. BROAD RIDGING
ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 25N E OF 25W INTO
AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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