[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 040901
TCDAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Arthur still has a well-defined eye in radar imagery, and the
cloud pattern features an area of cold cloud tops wrapping around
the northern and western portions of the circulation as some dry air
works its way into the southern semicircle. Before the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters left Arthur, they measured flight-level winds of
91 kt and SFMR winds of 82 kt, which support maintaining the initial
intensity at 85 kt. The central pressure is set to 973 mb based on
a measurement of 975.5 mb at an NOAA National Ocean Service station
at Oregon Inlet with a wind of 35 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be sampling Arthur later this morning. Gradual
weakening is expected today and tonight, and Arthur will complete
extratropical transition by 36 hours. After passing Nova
Scotia, post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North
Atlantic.

Arthur is accelerating northeastward, with an initial motion
estimate of 040/20, and a northeastward motion is expected to
continue for the next 48 hours as Arthur recurves ahead of an
advancing mid-latitude trough. The track model guidance is in good
agreement in taking the center of Arthur well offshore of the U.S.
mid-Atlantic coast today and southeast of New England tonight before
moving over Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that time, Arthur
is expected to continue across Newfoundland and into the North
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance
envelope through 72 hours and is close to the GEFS ensemble
mean at days 4 and 5.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 36.0N  75.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 38.4N  72.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 42.2N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 45.5N  64.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  06/0600Z 47.5N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/0600Z 53.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/0600Z 59.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 63.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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