[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 040301
TCDAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
in the southeastern eyewall.  The lowest reported central pressure
was 976 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt.  Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
infrared satellite imagery.

Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
initial motion is now 035/16.  A continued northeastward motion and
acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours.  The
forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
hours.  After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic.  The
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
adjacent northwestern Atlantic.  After that, Arthur is expected to
undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia.  After passing Nova
Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
North Atlantic.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 34.6N  76.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 36.7N  74.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 40.0N  70.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 43.7N  66.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  06/0000Z 46.2N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/0000Z 51.5N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/0000Z 57.5N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 60.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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