[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 1500 UTC IS MOVING NW AT
2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. A LARGE AREA
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-227.5N W OF 77W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 25W/26W FROM 19N TO 9N...MOVING W 15 KT. SAHARAN
AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N70W TO 10N71W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG
79W FROM 10N-19N..MOVING W 15 KT WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N17W
TO 4N39W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N39W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE
S TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N96W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA N OF 21N W OF 88W. OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 23N W OF 91W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 20N81W. OTHERWISE MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 45 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N BETWEEN
75W-84W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 72W. THE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N57W TO 20N65W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32N47W TO 22N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 31N38W AND IS MOVING NE
ABOUT 10 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO
22N40W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO
31N54W THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 80 NM EITHER E OF THE
TROUGH. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N39W TO 24N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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