[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N 79.2W IS
STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED S
OF THE CENTER FROM 25N TO 27.5N W OF 77W TO THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 23W FROM 08N TO 19N...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
SAHARAN AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N68W TO 10N70W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED E OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N77W TO 10N78W..MOVING W 15 KT WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
THROUGH 10N24W TO 04N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N40W AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A 60 NM WIDE
BAND CENTERED FROM 09N22W TO 05N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27.5N95W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS S TO 21N97W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N
OF 21N W OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W/94W S OF 23N WITH OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS
LOCATED S OF 23N W OF 90W. AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N94.5W. BROAD RIDGING
ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A 1017 MB HIGH IS
POSITIONED OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28.5N89W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS
INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 45 KT. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA W OF 75.5W AND THE COAST OF PANAMA E OF 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROKEN CLOUDINESS OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 72W. MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THE SOUTHERN PART OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N65W. A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVERS
THE AREA FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 48W/49W N OF 25N. A MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 29N39W AND IS MOVING
NE ABOUT 10 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO
20N42W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH
32N53W TO 31N60W TO 33N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
32N52W TO 27N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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