[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER TO 2N20W TO 1N30W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO NEAR 100W
DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY A NW FLOW ALOFT. A 90-
110 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE NORTH GULF STATES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...
PARTICULARLY N OF 24N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. S OF 24N...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...EXCEPT GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE GULF. THE NEXT COLD IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH
FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FAR SE WATERS ON THU GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SW N ATLC ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA THEN EXTENDS SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS NOTED OVER JAMAICA
AND REGIONAL WATERS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS OVERALL STABILITY ALOFT IS RESULTING IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU. THE MOST
RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-
25 KT RANGE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WED WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY
AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM 31N59W TO 28N78W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN ATLC
NEAR 25N33W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N44W. A 90-110
KT JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM
19N56W TO 17N38W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE AZORES NEAR 33N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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