[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Feb 25 11:58:14 CST 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 251757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE
COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 2N20W
1N25W 1N31W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO 1S44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO
1N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 2W AND 5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 36W
AND 45W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO 3N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. ALONG
82W/83W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE U.S.A. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE SOUTH OF 25N. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W
TO 30N65W TO 29N70W...AND 28N76W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
FROM 28N76W TO THE TAMPA FLORIDA AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM TAMPA FLORIDA...TO 28N88W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...27N91W...AND TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W
26N60W 25N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 25N. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...ARE 1.44 FOR BERMUDA...AND 0.07 IN FREEPORT IN THE
BAHAMAS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.96 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.67 IN FREEPORT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 25N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 500 FEET OR LOWER AND VISIBILITIES OF 1
MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KCRH...KVBS... ICAO STATION KBBF IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND  VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE AT KGUL...KGBK... KATP...AND KMDJ. ICAO STATION KDLP IS
REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AT
EARLIER TIMES. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
GALVESTON AND PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA ALSO. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. PATCHY FOG AND
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
CLEARING SKIES...STILL WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...ARE
BEING REPORTED IN MISSISSIPPI. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
COASTAL ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM VALPARAISO WESTWARD. RAIN WAS REPORTED AT MARY
ESTHER DURING THE LAST OBSERVATION. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 29N91W TO 28N97W. EXPECT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 82W/83W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA...ALONG 10N TO 10N82W...THROUGH
NORTHERN NICARAGUA INTO WESTERN HONDURAS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
WERE 0.08 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA
CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW
THEN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW BREAKS DOWN WITH TIME...GIVING WAY TO
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WITH A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TOWARD 17N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
16N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURROUNDS
THE CYCLONIC CENTER IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 48W IN THE
SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N24W...TO 31N32W 28N52W 25N59W 25N70W...ACROSS ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO 28N76W...AND A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N67W TO 26N80W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 54W
AND 59W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO
10 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 29N35W TO 18N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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