[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N20W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 20W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
EMBEDDED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MORE
SPECIFICALLY...ENERGY FOCUSED OVER SE LOUISIANA. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OR FRONTS ARE REFLECTED TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED TO AID IN GRADUALLY MOVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
CURRENTLY STATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO A BROAD 1019 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE NW
GULF NEAR 26N95W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
19N96W...SOUTHEASTWARD BY EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 21N89W...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME SE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE...A SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 77W FROM OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY
A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W TO
19N81W TO INLAND ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W...AND S OF
12N W OF 80W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...DRY AND STABLE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLIES PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N55W. WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ALOFT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO N-NW FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N65W W-SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N47W. THE
RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AS WELL ALONG 28N/29N TO THE CANARY
ISLAND AND NORTHERN MOROCCO. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 20N55W...WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N64W.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
05N-19N BETWEEN 46W-61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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