[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO 01N30W TO 02N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
EMBEDDED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MORE SPECIFICALLY...
ENERGY FOCUSED OVER EAST TEXAS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OR FRONTS ARE REFLECTED TO THE SURFACE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN
GRADUALLY MOVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY STATIONARY FROM
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO A
BROAD 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N92W...SOUTHEASTWARD BY EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN THIS EVENING N OF 24N AND W OF 89W...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME SE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA STRAITS.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 77W FROM OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS IS
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY
A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W TO
19N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W...AND S OF
11N W OF 80W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...DRY AND STABLE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLIES PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N56W. WHILE THIS FEATURES INFLUENCE REMAINS ALOFT...ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO N-NW FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N41W. THE
RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AS WELL ALONG 29N/30N TO THE CANARY
ISLAND AND NORTHERN MOROCCO. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 21N55W...WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
05N-18N BETWEEN 46W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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