[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N16W AND 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 1S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 21W
AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF
20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF
MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
30N80W 28N90W 25N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W AND
28N87W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N87W TO 26N95W...22N96W
AND 19N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N95W...INLAND IN
MEXICO...TO 21N100W AND 28N101W. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF 90W TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 25N90W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE IN
THIS AREA. THE VISIBILITIES ARE 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT
KBQX...KGUL...KGBK...KEHC...KCRH...KEIR... KSPR...KATP...AND
KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT DRIZZLE...AND
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS...COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA..TO THE
FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA FROM PANAMA CITY TO
APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE TO PUNTA GORDA. LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO
NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA...AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
75W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
21N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.15 IN ST. THOMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N83W NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER...BEYOND 7N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND
76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN
PUNTA CANA WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN 80W RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA
RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N54W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N54W CENTER...TO 19N61W
JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
16N66W...TO 15N76W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO
30N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM
13N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N21W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 31N45W...TO A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 31N57W...TO 30N665...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 47W.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W...INCLUDING IN THE
APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
26N TO THE EAST OF 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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