[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 1S40W AND
2S45W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 1S
TO 2N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 37W AND
40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO
THE EAST OF 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF
MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
AND IT CONTINUES TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W
19N95W...INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N100W...24N100W AND 27N101W. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N83W TO 27N90W 23N95W 19N93W...TO
THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...AND FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 81W AND 86W MOSTLY IN WESTERN CUBA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AT 1100 FEET OR LOWER COVER THE ICAO
STATIONS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. THE VISIBILITIES ARE 2 MILES OR
LESS WITH FOG AT KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KATP...AND KIPN.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT DRIZZLE...AND
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS...COVER THE TEXAS FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO
ALABAMA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE TO
PUNTA GORDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 23N94.5W TO 18N94W.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA...AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
75W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
21N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM
14N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.15 IN ST. THOMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N83W NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER...BEYOND 6N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W
AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA
CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN 80W RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA
RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N54W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N54W CENTER...TO 19N61W
JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N7W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N19W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 30N43W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 31N55W...TO 30N66W...TO 29N77W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST
OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 47W.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF
74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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