[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N15W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 13W-22W AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 42W-46W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 0300 UTC IS ALONG 29N91W TO 26N94W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM OUT OF MEXICO TO OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. MOREOVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY WITHIN  100 NM OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COASTLINE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING TO THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. THIS
WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOIST AIR FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO GENERATE FOG N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF
WHERE NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25 KT DOMINATE. DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE SW GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N94W
TO 21N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF BY
MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE BASIN EARLY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N-NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A TONGUE
OF MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH
TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT ARE SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE TERRITORIES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS SPREAD ELSEWHERE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING
SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE FROM THE TRADEWINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
31N43W AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 37N39W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 5N-26N BETWEEN 36W-52W
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net