[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N13W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W 1N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 7W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 33W-41W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES TO OVER
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF AT
02/2100 UTC NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ALONG 28N95W TO ACROSS S
TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT E COVERING THE E GULF WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW E OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SE AND REACH FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON
MORNING WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL THEN DRIFT NW AND MOVE
INLAND MON NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE BASIN EARLY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 14N. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE THEN WILL REBUILD
ON WED WEAKENING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW ATLC
ENTERING NEAR 32N78W TO ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS CUBA
TO BEYOND 32N76W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 28N49W THROUGH 22N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N46W. THE STRONG ATLC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE THEN WILL REBUILD ON WED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE
WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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