[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
05N16W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N
BETWEEN 03W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENERGY
FOCUSED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W.
THIS ENERGY IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 25N86W
NE TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO JACKSONVILLE
AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE MID-
LEVEL LIFT GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 84W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
INLAND FLORIDA N OF 27N. OTHERWISE...S-SE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL W OF 86W WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW NOTED
W OF 95W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE
BASIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHEN THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY USHERING IN ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF N-NE
WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY RELATIVELY
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND
FLOW FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE...THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND E OF 72W AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF
15N. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH ENERGY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA EMBEDDED
WITHIN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY AND OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
NE TO BEYOND 32N77W. RELATIVELY MOIST S-SE FLOW PREVAILS  ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W. THIS SURFACE RIDGING
INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE E OF 60W IS A CUT-OFF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N51W THAT IS PROVIDING
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 07N-22N BETWEEN 43W-58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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