[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE FORCE WINDS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS ON SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM 11 TO 14 FT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
3N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA S OF THE
EQUATOR ALONG 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ AND 60 NM NORTH OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N77W. IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF TO THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE
SURFACE RIDGE WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N81W TO
27N82W AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N84W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF 85W AND STREAMING NORTHWARD-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
AREAS OF FOG COVERS THIS REGION AND EXTEND INLAND FLORIDA. WATER
VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
LEVELS WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. NWP
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
FLORIDA TODAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY EARLY SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N77W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE
ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 35N60W.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE
MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS ANOTHER
MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL TO EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS OF 15-20
KT ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS EXTENDS
WITHIN 120 NM OFF THESE COASTLINES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE FROM THE TRADES IS ELSEWHERE. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND
BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS. HOWEVER...A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS CROSSING THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TO THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG 30N80W SW TO NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TAMPA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 77W.
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N38W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
FURTHER NORTH TODAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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