[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N73W TO 11N74W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE ENVIRONMENT AS
DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG
WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS
HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 12N BETWEEN 64W-73W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 07N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N28W TO 06N40W 04N52W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 15W-
25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N-18N E
OF 30W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN
38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N82W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM
20N92W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 21N
BETWEEN 91W-96W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN HAITI NEAR 19N73W TO 11N74W. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS
HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 12N BETWEEN 64W-73W. SHOWERS ARE ALSO AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA ON
THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTLINE. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ALSO INLAND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BEING
SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERNS...RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ISLAND THROUGH VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ALONG 30N60W TO 25N63W 20N67W. THE SECOND FRONT IS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT FROM 30N63W TO 24N68W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED
BY THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N43W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-61W
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT
S OF 27N. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTLINE.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-22N BETWEEN
51W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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