[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM HAITI AT 20N72W TO
N COLOMBIA AT 11N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF S GUINEA
AT 9N13W TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 8N29W TO
7N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 21W-28W...FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 21W-28W...AND
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 35W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N83W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SSW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N88W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM
22N95W TO 16N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER S MEXICO.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA
RICA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W PANAMA
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N E OF 65W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THEE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ARE
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR BOTH SYSTEMS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND WITH A
DECREASE OF CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL MOVE W WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 26N66W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT
20N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 26N70W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 23N76W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. A 1029 MB IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 55W-75W. DIFFLUENCE
FROM THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 57W-61W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N38W. EXPECT THE TWO FRONTS TO MERGE IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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