[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 240238
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013

LORENZO IS ALMOST DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING
BLASTED BY 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ESSENTIALLY VANISHED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...LORENZO IS NOW DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION.  THE SHEAR IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF LORENZO
SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES COLLOCATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...
COLDER WATERS AND DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT RESTRENGTHENING.  ASSUMING
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...LORENZO WOULD LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY.
THE LOW SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME
LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4 KT.  LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED NORTH OF LORENZO IS
FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
VERY SOON.  THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE TURN
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING
UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 29.5N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 30.1N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 31.0N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1200Z 32.0N  45.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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