[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 232035
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
500 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013

LORENZO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
40 KT WHICH IS THE MEAN OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
BECOME EVEN HIGHER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE
TEMPORARILY RELAXING WHEN A 200-MB ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER LORENZO
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE BEEN SO DISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE
TO MAKE A COMEBACK.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS...AND LORENZO
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF NOT
SOONER.

LORENZO HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY AND JUST SOUTH OF EAST TODAY.
NONETHELESS...ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITHIN 12 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT
BUILDING OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LORENZO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 29.3N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 29.9N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 30.8N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 31.8N  46.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 33.1N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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