[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR
29.5N 53.0W. LORENZO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 7 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N58W 24N55W 26N52W 27N50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. PART OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ ALSO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N42W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 37W AND 52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN WHILE IT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CURRENT AREA OF A PERSISTENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND
PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W AND 8N24W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 6N32W AND 6N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND
12W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN
29W AND 34W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND
52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N69W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...FROM 13N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND
74W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N61W 22N64W 20N67W TO THE NORTH OF THE
MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB
AND 500 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALL THE
TIME.

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
INCLUDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N69W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE AREA OF THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF
13N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
CUBA NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND IN THE EASTERNMOST AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 23N96W IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE 27N88W 24N92W 22N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...
KBBF...KBQX...KEMK...KGBK...KEHC...KEIR...KMYT...KMDJ. LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT KVBS AND KDLP. BROKEN
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KGUL AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
VISIBILITIES NEAR 3 MILES ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHERN/COASTAL
LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY TO THE
TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE WITH FOG IS AT
THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE GENERAL AIRPORT. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS IN PUNTA GORDA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-
HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 20N85W 21N96W 19N95W. EXPECT NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 22N
TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN 36 HOURS...NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 TO 13 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...AND
BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN LAKE
MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS IS ALONG 24N19W TO 19N30W...TO A 20N40W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO
31N21W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING ALONG 31N21W 29N32W
28N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF WINDS AND
SEAS CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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