[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR
29.3N 53.8W. LORENZO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N45W 10N45W 7N44W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. PART OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO
THE ITCZ ALSO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 36W AND 51W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N72W 13N73W 8N74W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA OF A PERSISTENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY
IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 10N20W 7N25W AND 4N28W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N28W TO 3N32W 6N39W 7N46W 9N50W 10N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W
AND 18W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...
AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N68W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS
HISPANIOLA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
TO THE EAST OF 66W...AND FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB
AND 500 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALL THE
TIME.

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
INCLUDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 23N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
SOUTH OF 24N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KHQI...KIPN...KVBS...AND KMDJ.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT KEMK. A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES WITH FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO
STATION KATP. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS... KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST WITH SPOTTY LOW VISIBILITIES AT THE MOMENT.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF COASTAL TEXAS...
INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM VALPARAISO WESTWARD. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS COVER PERRY FLORIDA AND PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA. A VISIBILITY
OF 2 MILES WITH FOG IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE GENERAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 18-
HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N88W 27N94W 20N96.5W. EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W...
BEYOND 10N85W IN WESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA...WESTERN VENEZUELA TO
THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS IS ALONG 24N19W TO 19N30W...TO A 20N40W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO
30N25W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING ALONG 30N25W 30N30W
29N34W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N30W...TO A
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF WINDS AND
SEAS CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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